Ralph Nader Takes on Gallup Poll's Black Box

October 5th, 2008
Posted by Toby Heaps at Nader 2008 blog

We do fairly poorly on the Gallup poll, generally registering less than 1 percent (or about 5 times less than the recent WSJ poll). This is probably because they don’t mention Ralph Nader’s name in the question–just Obama and McCain.

So I phoned up Gallup’s Editor-in-Chief (609-924-9600), and asked him if they had any kind of objective threshold which we could strive toward so that Ralph Nader’s name could be included as part of the primary question.

His answer: “No. We use our internal judgment to decide. We do some open-ended questions and variety of other criteria, and then our editorial team makes a decision.” I asked if there were any ballpark levels of support in the open-ended question they looked to as a threshold, and he repeated his mantra, that it was subject to “internal judgment criteria,” and then jumped off to take another call.

He was kind enough to leave me with his e-mail to follow up. Anyone who wants to let Newport know what you think of his internal judegment, please call him or e-mail him at frank_newport@gallup.com."

Thanks to Austin Cassidy's Independent Political Report for bringing this entry to my attention.


Here are a few other articles of interest:

Why does the latest poll by the Pew Research Center report that drilling for domestic oil has jumped to the top of Americans' energy priorities? Maybe because Pew didn’t ask respondents if they want the nation to invest in clean energy and efficient cars, instead. So suggests this poll (pdf) by Belden Russonello & Stewart, released last week.
http://wilderness.org/Library/Documents/upload/BRS-Omnibus-Poll_07-22-08.pdf

Despite a raft of advantages in the electorate for Democrats, in September's first Gallup tracking poll, an equal number of Republicans and Democrats were surveyed (including "leaners") from Sept. 3-5, compared to a 10-point Democratic identification advantage two weeks ago. That partisan makeup of the polling pool resulted in a 5-point lead for McCain in Sept. 5 tracking poll. Meanwhile, the new CBS poll features a 6-point swing in partisan composition toward Republicans, which plays some role in the poll's two-point lead for McCain. Finally, the latest USA Today poll, which claims a four-point edge for McCain, was arrived at after a 10-point swing in partisan makeup toward GOP respondents. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/09/poll-madness-mccain-takes_n_125158.html

Polling itself is unpredictable. Polling affects elections. It's sort of like this thing "you can't drop a stone in the same river once [sic]"—as soon as you poll it, you've changed it. What should we really make of polling in this election? http://therealnews.com/t/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=2111

Polling is a business; the interest of pollsters is not to educate the public.

Cheap Drills - Deception to Triumph?

Update: Here is the link to contact your representatives, originally to be included at the end of the posting. http://www.usa.gov/Contact/Elected.shtml 091208

"The American News Project has put together a great video highlighting how little drilling would do to lower gas prices, as well as the amount of money the oil industry has given to Republican candidates. It features regular Grist contributor Joe Romm, and provides some good insight into the current energy debate on the Hill:"





Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) and other Democratic leaders in the House have outlined a new energy plan that proposes allowing drilling 100 miles off the Atlantic coast and Florida's Gulf coast. The buffer zone could be reduced to 50 miles if a state's governor and legislature consent (which is a big "if"). The plan, which hasn't yet been formally released, also contains increased funding for renewable energy. They're calling it the "Comprehensive American Energy Security & Taxpayer Protection Act," and it includes a number of measures that have stalled previously -- curbing energy speculators, establishing a renewable electricity standard, and repealing subsidies to Big Oil.

Continue reading at Grist


It has become very, very clear that unless you personally and directly profit from the increased cost of gas or oil, such as stockholder, then opening up sensitive areas for drilling and decreasing the current regulations in place to keep us safe would not benefit you at all. By the time the pennies worth of savings trickle down to you (if they do) they won't be worth what it took to get them there. Our belief in this lie will keep the funding from flowing into alternative, locally produced, clean energy that will truly free us of our dependence on foreign powers. At the price oil is selling for today, the fact that our oil industries still receive the subsidies and special tax incentives they do, and the millions they spend lobbying to keep them, is disgusting as well as standing in the way of our energy independence. The oil companies couldn't have gotten where they are are today, an embedded part of our infrastructure, without that public support and neither can Alternative Energy. When you have a leg to stand on, when you are on the side of the science and the people, you don't resort to propaganda and lies. That's what big oil has done, and are still doing. The time to stop them is now.

Below find just a few of the thousands of articles and blogs, scientists and professionals from all walks screaming and waving flags in the air in an attempt to warn you and I. This is a VERY important, time sensitive issue, please schedule some time to review and consider them carefully. Further down, you will find links to contact your elected officials, and ideas about what to say to convey what you feel and what you've learned and how you would like them to represent you on the matter.

Drill here, drill now: a pipe dream
12,954 Nuclear Power Plants - That's how many nuclear plants the world would need to build to replace its current fossil-fuel-based energy.

Newt Gingrich-led 527 group behind 'drill baby drill'
The slogan “Drill here. Drill now. Pay less.” is fueling Gingrich’s American Solutions for Winning the Future, a so-called 527 group not subject to federal campaign finance law and its limits on donations. So far this election cycle, it has raised $13.1 million.

Study links oil prices to investor speculation
"We have clear evidence the fund flow pushed prices up and the fund flow pushed prices down," said Michael Masters of Masters Capital Management. (perhaps you remember Michael Masters from a previous posting of his testimony before congress on the matter ,"McCain Not Helping". here's the link to the testimony)

Exposing the Big Oil Lie
The Center for Economic and Policy Research found that the news media has mindlessly amplified that lie. The hundreds of broadcasts on “proposed drilling for oil in environmentally sensitive zones in the United States” almost completely ignored the EIA report.

Drill drill drill, then sell to Japan
Dear Secretary Bodman,
On June 3, 2008 and July 30, 2008 respectively, your Department issued and affirmed an order pursuant to Section 3 of the Natural Gas Act that will allow two major integrated oil companies – ConocoPhillips and Marathon Oil – to export 98.1 billion cubic feet of Alaskan natural gas to Japan and other Pacific Rim countries. This order, which will allow the export of as much natural gas as is used by 1.4 million American families in a year, comes at a time when the President had demanded that the moratoria on oil and gas drilling along our environmentally-sensitive coastal areas be lifted and Americans are being warned that their winter heating bills are going to be dramatically higher.

Pimping for Oil
Currently the crisis is energy, and with the Bush administration’s expenses on military security topping 500 billion dollars this year only 1 percent is being spent on energy security. The grim prospect of Thomas Fingar who is the top US Intelligence analyst predicts military strength will be the least important goal compared to the acquisition of water, food and energy.

Prices are Down, not due to drilling
There are arguments that much of the price movement is due to speculation. But the driving public also forced gasoline prices down all by themselves, and they did it in quick fashion. They did it by reducing their demand for gasoline. They simply drove less; they took public transportation; they shared car pools and yes, they inflated their tires. And where they had a choice, they chose more fuel efficient vehicles and got rid of their gas guzzlers (or used them less)

Alaska drilling will have little effect on Prices
The opening of the ANWR 1002 Area to oil and natural gas development is projected to increase domestic crude oil production starting in 2018. In the mean ANWR oil resource case, additional oil production resulting from the opening of ANWR reaches 780,000 barrels per day in 2027 and then declines to 710,000 barrels per day in 2030. (we use 21 million barrels per day currently, according to this same site)

Drill baby drill is a Lie

• It'll take 10 years at a minimum to get outer continental shelf (OCS) oil to market.
• there’s not enough deep sea drilling rigs to punch more holes in the OCS for something like 5 years.
• A RAND Corporation study says that the savings from making shale-based oil available is only 3-5% and that it’ll be 2020 at the earliest before any oil could be available. And More....

Exxonmobil Spent Nearly $16 Million to Fund Skeptic Groups, Create Confusion.
Honestly, if you want to boil it all down to business, does a corporation spend this kind of cash to fund skeptics and risk bad press and shareholder backlash (they did, actually, get pummeled by their investors) if they had science and environmental groups behind them for free?

You can re-visit my other postings by clicking on any of the pertinent tags below, or along the right side of the blog for further study before you reach out to your representatives and local media.

You will want to keep your messages brief and to the point, but clear. For recorded messages on answering systems, think along these lines:

"Hi, my name is xxx xxx, I live in Xcounty, State (or other area designation, so they know you are their constituent) and continuing the current ban on drilling is important to me. I have looked into the details and am convinced it will not result in enough of a benefit in the long or short term and considering our current level of technology, combined with the current global energy situation. Please vote to continue restrictions on drilling, and stand firm in your vote to support funding and incentives for alternative energy. Thank you, xxx."

You can use a form of this, personalized of course, in email and written correspondence. In emails, include links to the postings that made the most impressions on you. In my case, the governments own EIA website, Micheal Masters testimony to congress and the report from the union of concerned scientists regarding the money spent by Exxon to confuse us really stand out. When sending written correspondence, include a page for each bit of information you find critical and remember not to send a book that will simply be set aside. If you can make the time, try to schedule an appointment with your local representatives. Get your family involved, give them each a piece of the information and let them work out a bit to say on it. It will make a strong statement to your representative and be a fabulous community action activity for your family. The same goes for your friends, co-workers and neighbors. A well thought out, well planned, informative, respectful presentation will be well appreciated and your concerns will be heard even more loudly than in email. Dropping a line to local media advising them of your appointment and the topic of your meeting may garner you some publicity and further support.

Impeach the President?

I've thought about it a lot. It sure does seem to me there are far more and better reasons to consider it than were put forward to actually complete the deed with Clinton. Nancy Pelosi insists we need to put forward proof of a crime. Since I'm not an attorney, and in the past things I've felt sure were crimes turned out not to be (wow, is that frustrating), I began looking for other more qualified information.

As I'm sure you can imagine, everyone has an opinion on the matter. Some seemingly qualified sources, some... not so much, but compelling none the less. I've read or listened to or watched opinions ranging from dark cultish ritual based conspiracies to ... well, only slightly less dark conspiracies. I click, read, listen, watch and repeat. Possibly, in the back of my TVgen mind, I think some 'Chuck' like answer will come over me and everything will become clear.
Below is a playlist, a collection of some of the video I've viewed and considered relevant to my search somehow. A few of them may seem off key, but in some strange way it relates to my thoughts and feelings about impeaching the president.

Also, click below to review some of the articles I've reviewed. There are quite a few listed here, so don't hurt yourself. The top listings under 'impeach' are the goal, but feel free to browse the full list.

McCain Not Helping Solve It - We Can!

"McCain's hoping to use gas prices as a wedge issue to win the election. That's why it's so critical that we keep spreading the message that McCain's been heavily influenced by the oil companies.When people think of Bush, they think 'oil,' but that's not true of McCain yet—even though his energy policy is almost identical to Bush's and his campaign is literally run by oil lobbyists! Check out this video from our friends at Progressive Accountability. Once you've watched, pass it on! And then please consider a donation (below) to help us spread the word."
MoveOn.org Political Action: Democracy in Action

Below is are a few things I've read on the matter:

"The projections in the OCS access case indicate that access to the Pacific, Atlantic, and eastern Gulf regions would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2030. Leasing would begin no sooner than 2012, and production would not be expected to start before 2017. Total domestic production of crude oil from 2012 through 2030 in the OCS access case is projected to be 1.6 percent higher than in the reference case, and 3 percent higher in 2030 alone, at 5.6 million barrels per day. For the lower 48 OCS, annual crude oil production in 2030 is projected to be 7 percent higher—2.4 million barrels per day in the OCS access case compared with 2.2 million barrels per day in the reference case (Figure 20). Because oil prices are determined on the international market, however, any impact on average wellhead prices is expected to be insignificant." http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/otheranalysis/ongr.html

Mccain's campaign also says it will do no good; http://thinkprogress.org/2008/06/18/top-mccain-adviser-offshore-drilling-will-have-no-immediate-effect-on-gas-prices/

No expert will back the BushCain claim; http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/06/23/impossible-finding-expert_n_108692.html

They are relying on skewed polling data based on biased questions to proclaim more Americans are for drilling: http://solveclimate.com/blog/20080728/poll-truth-clean-energy-solutions-topple-drilling and http://wilderness.org/Library/Documents/upload/BRS-Omnibus-Poll_07-22-08.pdf

The Saudi's will pump more this year at our President's request than the entire drilling venture would contribute; http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/6/24/151852/447

And here's why they are so under informed; http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/6/25/10526/4230.

The simple reality is, drilling just will never, ever do what McCain and Bush think it will.
Here's why
http://www.theseminal.com/2008/06/18/drilling-is-a-fraud/

John McCain's Connection to Big Oil & The Enron Loopholehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdRbuUQNcxw

and http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/6/30/62830/1353

On MSNBC Live, Andrea Mitchell discussed Sen. John McCain's call to end the moratorium on offshore oil drilling with RNC deputy chairman Frank Donatelli, but did not mention that Donatelli was a registered lobbyist for energy sector clients ExxonMobil and Dominion Resources before joining the RNC. Click here to read more... http://mediamatters.org/items/200806180004

Suppose we raised average fuel efficiency to 40 MPG by 2030; this would save us more than 5 million barrels of oil per day, 25 times as much as we would get from Senator McCain's offshore drilling. Since many cars sold today already get more than 40 MPG, this is hardly an unrealistic target. Americans drove 11 billion fewer miles in '07 http://www.dot.gov/affairs/fhwa1108.htm.

Wherever we set our targets, the simple arithmetic shows that it is far easier to have an impact on oil markets through conservation than drilling in environmentally sensitive areas.
http://www.truthout.org/article/john-mccain-wants-drill-your-toilet

An EPA email that the white house refused to open, in an attempt to stall enacting the measures recommended within, found danger to human health caused by climate change. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/24/AR2008072403423.html?hpid=sec-health

and http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/06/white-house-wont-open-emails-pt2.php

Robert Kaufmann, director of the Center for Energy and Environmental Studies at Boston University, talks about the realities of offshore oil drilling, including how much oil there might be, when it would be available and what the consequences could be. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=92677194

Alaska's longtime senator, Republican Ted Stevens, has been indicted by a federal grand jury as part of a continuing investigation of corruption in Alaska politics. The indictment accuses Stevens of filing false disclosure reports about his personal finances for 2001-2006, concealing more than $250,000 in home renovations that a private company paid for. That company was VECO, a multinational oil services company that has been at the center of the feds' corruption investigation since it was made public in 2007. http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2008/07/feds-indict-alaska-sen-stevens.html

Testimony before Senate by Michael W Masters:

I have been successfully managing a long-short equity hedge fund for over 12 years and I have extensive contacts on Wall Street and within the hedge fund community. Itʼs important that you know that I am not currently involved in trading the commodities futures markets. I am not representing any corporate, financial, or lobby organizations. I am speaking with you today as a concerned citizen whose professional background has given me insight into a situation that I believe is negatively affecting the U.S. economy.While some in my profession might be disappointed that I am presenting this testimony to Congress, I feel that it is the right thing to do.You have asked the question “Are Institutional Investors contributing to food and energy price inflation?” And my unequivocal answer is “YES.” http://hsgac.senate.gov/public/_files/052008Masters.pdf

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The government charged an oil trading firm Thursday with manipulating oil prices in the first complaint to be announced since the regulators began a new investigation into wrongdoings in the energy markets. http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/24/markets/cftc/

H. R. 6604
Bill to amend the Commodity Exchange Act to bring greater transparency and accountability to commodity markets, and for other purposes http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtext.xpd?bill=h110-6604

Please join more than one million others who know it will take all of us coming together to solve the climate crisis. http://www.wecansolveit.org/page/s/challengeremix